Source: Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET); United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
• Regional food security conditions have gradually improved since the last quarter of 2009, due to improved pasture and water availability, and increased livestock production and prices in the main pastoral areas, as well as improved crop production in the lowland marginal cropping and agropastoral areas caused by the mild moderate El Niño rains. The bulk of the currently highly or extremely food insecure population, estimated at about 17 million people by late 2009, is located in the pastoral and marginal cropping areas of the eastern sector of the region (Figure 1).
• In the most–likely scenario for January to March 2010, food security conditions in southern Sudan, Ethiopia, central Somalia, and Djibouti are expected to worsen, due to the combined impacts of poor 2009 rainfall, several consecutive poor or failed seasons, and high food prices. An early start to the hunger season is expected in these areas. In Somalia and southern Sudan, high levels of conflict are also deepening food insecurity and hindering the delivery of food assistance. In contrast, food security conditions are expected to improve from January to March in parts of Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and southern Somalia. In pastoral areas, good rains in December and into January have supported environmental regeneration and improved livestock body conditions and livestock to cereal terms of trade. In some cropping areas, average to above–average crop production is expected.
• During April to June, food insecurity is not expected to improve in the areas already facing high or extreme food insecurity in southern Sudan, northeastern Uganda, Ethiopia, central Somalia, and Djibouti, and could even worsen as any remaining harvests will likely become exhausted. Although March to May rains will improve pasture and cropping conditions across the region, provided that rains are normal, significant improvements in food security will not be realized during this period, as herd recovery will take longer. In contrast, in Kenya, Tanzania, and southern Somalia, sustained improvements in food security are expected, with enhanced livestock birth rates, increased milk availability, increased livestock prices, and expected normal to above–normal crop production based on a tentative forecast for near normal March–May rains. Furthermore, food stocks from the October to December rains harvest will still be available in some areas. However, overall improvements in food security will be moderated by continued high cereal prices, especially in non–producing areas, and cereal export bans, which would limit the flow of cereals to nonproducing areas during this period.
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